Back in January, we was talkin' 'bout dat record high United States oil production hit in 2018, I tell you what. Now we're a few months into the new year, and the U.S. ain't showin' no signs of slowin' down…
What We Reckon
Lookin' at 11 months of data from 2018, we're seein' a mighty fine increase in oil demand, 'bout 0.56 mb/d year over year. Even though folks didn't need as much jet fuel and kerosene last year, dem petrochemical and industrial boys stepped up and drove us into a net positive U.S. demand for the year. We reckon 2019 is gonna see some growth, though maybe a little less than the past few years, friend.
We seen January’s predictions for the U.S. sittin' at 12.1 mb/d by the end of 2019 and 12.9 mb/d by 2020, but them February numbers done already got bumped up to 12.4 mb/d and 13.2 mb/d. Dat's gonna bring some mighty fine economic gains to dem basins all around the U.S., not to mention all the folks supportin' 'em, like us valve and flange makers, new chances for pipe fitters to fuse a Weld neck flange to a pipe, or even the local shops happy to see more folks spendin' money. Course, all dat fast growth puts a heavy strain on local roads and governments while they're tryin' to catch up.
How Come It's Happenin'
Now, the reason folks underestimated U.S. oil production might just be 'cause technology's gettin' cheaper and operations are runnin' smoother than expected, but with a beast this tangled up, it's mighty hard to point a finger at just one thing. With things changin' so fast in this business, guessin' U.S. oil growth ain't no easy chore. Dat EIA keeps on updatin' their forecast models and KPI’s to close the gap 'tween what they reckon and what's actually happenin'.
What Might Happen Next
As new numbers come rollin' in, y'all better keep an eye out for any ups or downs in U.S. production and demand. Right now, though, it looks like we're on a good path and we'll keep on bumpin' up production for a good while. Lookin' at the whole wide world, this could end up draggin' down the price per barrel in the long run. OPEC and Russia are workin' together to steady out the supply and demand by cuttin' back production for the first 6 months of 2019 by 'bout 1.2 mb/d altogether, which is helpin' keep the price per barrel steady for now. But if the United States goes and shakes up the industry's supply and demand, we might be in for a rude awakenin', I tell you what.
Y'all go on and check out our March Update!
- Where We Got Our Facts:
- https://www.axios.com
- https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf?
