Let’s step outta our comfort zone a spell and talk 'bout this US Economy. Now dat we got some numbers, dat United States GDP annual growth rate been confirmed at 2.9%. Dat bein' said, the momentum of dat growth slowed down at the tail end of 2018, and it ain't picked up again yet on account of dat polar vortex, folks just not feelin' too confident, and a few other things. Now, far as workin' goes, dat unemployment rate dropped down to 3.8% compared to 4.0% before. Inflation's always hangin' around like a bad penny, but it didn't hit us too hard this past year. In January, total yearly inflation was sittin' at 1.6% y-o-y, showin' a clear downward trend over dese last few months (compared to 2.2% y-o-y in November).
At the end of 2018, United States crude oil output averaged 11.85mb/d, which is a 1.80 mb/d increase y-o-y. Texas production in December jumped up by 35 tb/d m-o-m to average 4.88 mb/d, with most of dat comin' straight outta the Permian Basin. While New Mexico only averaged 0.82 mb/d, they had the highest y-o-y growth rate from a percentage standpoint, nearly 46%, I tell you what. North Dakota rose 18 tb/d m-o-m and averaged 1.37 mb/d, with the bulk of it comin' from dat Bakken shale play.
The Gulf Coast (PADD 3) pumped out more than 64% of the United States crude oil production, with Texas accountin' for 40% of the total US crude oil output all by itself. Dat Permian Basin accounted for mighty near 59% of the US crude oil growth in 2018.
Speakin' globally, the heavy hitters for growth in 2018 were (in no particular order) Canada, US, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Qatar, with Mexico, Norway, and Vietnam showin' the biggest drop-offs in growth.
Now back to our regular scheduled programmin'.
Some fresh data is showin' that the 2019 Global oil output done increased to 1.50 mb/d y-o-y, while Global oil supply dropped by 0.16 mb/d to an average of 99.15 mb/d in February compared to January. This shrinkin' supply (with gasoline bein' the main culprit) has got folks feelin' mighty bullish in the market. BRENT crude is drawin' in a lot of investors who look like they're fixin' to strengthen their bullish positions. Whether or not this is a short or long-term strategy, well, we don't know for certain just yet, but we can say dat the risin' price of oil is currently bein' propped up by expectations of a shrinkin' global supply in the months to come.
Further support could come from the global rise in demand, which folks reckon will rise 1.24 mb/d, leadin' us to an average global oil demand of 99.96 mb/d.
As of March 28th 2019, the current price of BRENT crude is $68.00, and WTI crude is hoverin' just under $60 at $59.51. Ultimately, only time's gonna tell where we end up at the end of 2019, but all things considered, so far so good, y'all!
Stay tuned for our April update, hear!
Sources: https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm
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